Examination of ethnic-demographic trends in the USSR over the past 20 years, projection of trends likely to occur over the next 15 years, and estimation of the numbers and ethnic composition of draft-age males during this period. Demographic trends over the past two decades indicate that ethnic Russians and other Slavic peoples represent steadily declining proportions of the total population of the Soviet Union, whereas non-Russians, particularly Muslim-Turkic peoples, are steadily gaining in relative strength. This demographic shift, which is already being reflected in the military and nonmilitary labor cohort, must concern the Kremlin because of long-standing nationality problems, ethnic antagonisms, and educational and linguistic handicaps characteristic of the USSR's minority peoples. Speculations are made regarding the Kremlin's options in solving USSR labor and military manpower problems.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation Note series. The note was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1979 to 1993 that reported other outputs of sponsored research for general distribution.
Our mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/principles.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.