Download eBook for Free
| Format | File Size | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| PDF file | 1.2 MB | Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience. |
The author of this Note speculates about the possibility and desirability of developing a formal calculus for evaluating scenarios. Scenarios are an essential element of military planning. The author argues for the need of a calculus--a rigorous method for evaluation--of the scenarios used in military planning studies. The purpose of the calculus is not to generate scenarios, but to evaluate them within some commonly shared framework or set of rules. A two-dimensional structure for evaluating scenarios is suggested as an illustration of how formal procedures might be employed to diagram a scenario, much as a sentence or electrical circuit is diagramed. A calculus of scenarios, if developed along the lines proposed in the Note, would enable the defender and critic of a scenario to reason together about its omissions, inconsistencies, and uncertainties.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation Note series. The note was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1979 to 1993 that reported other outputs of sponsored research for general distribution.
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.