Non-Nuclear Air-to-Surface Ordnance for the Future

An Approach to Propulsion Technology Risk Assessment

William P. Hutzler, J. R. Nelson, Richard Y. Pei, Corazon M. Francisco

ResearchPublished 1983

Proposes a risk assessment method that addresses the likelihood of achieving technological advances for particular military hardware by quantifying (1) the technological state of the art of that hardware and (2) the probability of achieving that program relative to past experiences with similar programs. The hardware considered in this research for state-of-the-art trending and risk assessment includes man-rated aircraft turbine engines, solid rocket motors, and non-man-rated missile and drone turbine engines. Preliminary evaluation of the various models indicates that, for the most part, the results agree with what engineers would expect concerning variables that are important to the trend of the technologies and to the outcomes for particular programs.

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  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Available
  • Year: 1983
  • Print Format: Paperback
  • Paperback Pages: 65
  • Paperback Price: $25.00
  • Document Number: N-1973-AF

Citation

RAND Style Manual
Hutzler, William P., J. R. Nelson, Richard Y. Pei, and Corazon M. Francisco, Non-Nuclear Air-to-Surface Ordnance for the Future: An Approach to Propulsion Technology Risk Assessment, RAND Corporation, N-1973-AF, 1983. As of September 11, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/notes/N1973.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Hutzler, William P., J. R. Nelson, Richard Y. Pei, and Corazon M. Francisco, Non-Nuclear Air-to-Surface Ordnance for the Future: An Approach to Propulsion Technology Risk Assessment. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1983. https://www.rand.org/pubs/notes/N1973.html. Also available in print form.
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