Cover: Non-Nuclear Air-to-Surface Ordnance for the Future

Non-Nuclear Air-to-Surface Ordnance for the Future

An Approach to Propulsion Technology Risk Assessment

Published 1983

by William P. Hutzler, J. R. Nelson, Richard Y. Pei, Corazon M. Francisco


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Proposes a risk assessment method that addresses the likelihood of achieving technological advances for particular military hardware by quantifying (1) the technological state of the art of that hardware and (2) the probability of achieving that program relative to past experiences with similar programs. The hardware considered in this research for state-of-the-art trending and risk assessment includes man-rated aircraft turbine engines, solid rocket motors, and non-man-rated missile and drone turbine engines. Preliminary evaluation of the various models indicates that, for the most part, the results agree with what engineers would expect concerning variables that are important to the trend of the technologies and to the outcomes for particular programs.

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