Strategic Analysis as Though Nonsuperpowers Matter

by William Schwabe

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Military strategy analysis seldom treats nonsuperpower behavior except in the simplest fashion. This obscures real uncertainty and disagreement about nonsuperpower roles in future armed conflict between superpowers. The study asks if a more dynamic treatment of nonsuperpower behavior in strategic analysis is feasible and desirable. It describes a rule-based nonsuperpower simulation and results of gaming several scenarios. The analysis reveals possible interactions between superpower and nonsuperpower decisionmaking potentially affecting deterrence stability, military performance, and alliance cohesion. It concludes that strategic analysis can and should consider nonsuperpower behavior as important independent variables.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Note series. The note was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1979 to 1993 that reported other outputs of sponsored research for general distribution.

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