Excess Capacity in International Telecommunications
Poor Traffic Forecasting or What?
ResearchPublished 1986
Poor Traffic Forecasting or What?
ResearchPublished 1986
Under international cooperative arrangements, governments and private firms have been remarkably successful in building worldwide systems of communications satellites and undersea cables. At the same time, the prospect of competitive entry by new firms offering satellite and cable services has triggered policy debate. Competition could foster new services and lower prices for some, while harming others. This Note examines the problem of excess capacity, which may grow because large international facilities are under construction, and because new market entrants are planning to invest in systems that compete with those of the established carriers. In particular, the author considers three reasons that common carriers and others have invested in a seemingly wasteful manner: (1) overoptimistic traffic forecasts, (2) market structure and regulatory policy, and (3) inefficient pricing of circuits.
This publication is part of the RAND note series. The note was a product of RAND from 1979 to 1993 that reported miscellaneous outputs of sponsored research for general distribution.
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.
RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.