A Research Agenda for Assessment and Propagation of Model Uncertainty

by David Draper, James S. Hodges, Edward E. Leamer, Carl N. Morris, Donald B. Rubin


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This Note is about assessing the uncertainty that arises in the modeling step of statistical analyses and propagating that uncertainty through to the final inferences drawn or decisions made. It contains the project description section of a proposal to the Decision, Risk, and Management Sciences Program at the National Science Foundation. The authors advocate a Bayesian methodology for assessment and propagation of model uncertainty, and also discuss frequentist alternatives. Successful research of the type proposed will provide new general-purpose tools for decisionmaking that will improve the assessment of how much hedging against uncertainty should be built in.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Note series. The note was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1979 to 1993 that reported other outputs of sponsored research for general distribution.

This research in the public interest was supported by RAND, using discretionary funds made possible by the generosity of RAND's donors, the fees earned on client-funded research, and independent research and development (IR&D) funds provided by the Department of Defense.

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