A Research Agenda for Assessment and Propagation of Model Uncertainty

by David Draper, James S. Hodges, Edward E. Leamer, Carl N. Morris, Donald B. Rubin

Download

Download eBook for Free

FormatFile SizeNotes
PDF file 2 MB

Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience.

Purchase

Purchase Print Copy

 FormatList Price Price
Add to Cart Paperback40 pages $23.00 $18.40 20% Web Discount

This Note is about assessing the uncertainty that arises in the modeling step of statistical analyses and propagating that uncertainty through to the final inferences drawn or decisions made. It contains the project description section of a proposal to the Decision, Risk, and Management Sciences Program at the National Science Foundation. The authors advocate a Bayesian methodology for assessment and propagation of model uncertainty, and also discuss frequentist alternatives. Successful research of the type proposed will provide new general-purpose tools for decisionmaking that will improve the assessment of how much hedging against uncertainty should be built in.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Note series. The note was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1979 to 1993 that reported other outputs of sponsored research for general distribution.

This research in the public interest was supported by RAND, using discretionary funds made possible by the generosity of RAND's donors, the fees earned on client-funded research, and independent research and development (IR&D) funds provided by the Department of Defense.

Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.