National Security Spending and Budget Trends Since World War II

This Note surveys major national and DOD trends of interest to defense planners since 1945. In general, the Defense Department's budget has reflected the world situation fairly reliably. As an element of the national economy and the federal budget, the defense burden has generally followed a downward trend since the Korean War. Nondefense federal and net public budgets have grown (and can be expected to continue to grow), pressuring defense budgets. Procurement will be the probable defense budget battleground of the 1990s. Marginal adjustments and improvements to the budget problem could yield the most important dividends. Examination of the historical record shows that trends do exist, that they are stable, and that there are good reasons for this. Those who call for radical action on the budget and defense program should have the burden of proof. Excessive change, or too abrupt a set of changes, leads to turbulence or worse and jeopardizes the ability to shape the course of strategic events.