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Using a number of scenarios, this Note examines variables likely to affect U.S. NATO policy during the first term of the Bush Administration. The variables include both those factors introduced by the Administration and the Congress, and those stemming from the world in which policymakers find themselves. The Administration and the congressional leadership are dominated by pragmatic centrists who want to preserve NATO and who will not be anxious to initiate radical change. Therefore, major changes in NATO are not likely to be introduced by the United States.
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