Toward a New Weapon System Analysis

by Edward B. Berman

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An attempt to reconstitute weapon-system analysis and cost analysis along lines that include a proper consideration of the uncertainties of weapon-system development as part of the "optimal" decision. The study deals with a structure in which a fixed-generation assumption is central (that is, all of the alternatives apply to the accomplishment of a job for a fixed period of time) and stresses the importance of the cost-probability function. Cases are considered of weapon systems with no reappraisal permitted until the final decision period, together with a case of reappraisal.

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