An analytical model for developing optimal ballistic missile maintenance procedures.

by Eloise E. Bean

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An analytical model to determine the probability that the missile system is in an alert condition and that it will survive the countdown and launch phase with 0, 1, 2,..., n delays of known duration. Both of these aspects are examined for several sets of maintenance schedules and operational modes, allowing a determination of the set of conditions producing a maximum probability of a successful launch within a fixed period of time. When used in conjunction with vulnerability considerations, this model is a useful tool for obtaining the relationship between mode of operation, maintenance policy, and system effectiveness.

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