Consideration of the problem of predicting equipment status when movements of units of equipment from one state to another are governed not only by the transition probabilities of a Markov chain, but also by a control process that involves a form of scheduling. In scheduling, reassignments of equipment from certain states to others are planned for various future times. Because the number of units actually available for reassignment is a random variable,"expected reassignments" are used in determining equipment status at each successive stage in the prediction process. Expected reassignments are used to modify equipment status at the beginning of a period, and then the transition probabilites of a Markov chain are used to determine the status of equipment at the end of that period. By using the resulting predictions, a decisionmaker is in a position to evaluate the future performance of the system and to adjust his schedule accordingly.
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