Adjustment for Central Tendency Effect in Predictions.

by William Hersche McGlothlin

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An examination of two phenomena connected with the prediction of a series of events. The first is the familiar statistical regression toward the mean occurring when one of two imperfectly correlated variables is predicted from the other. The second is the frequently observed phenomenon of overestimation of the lower values in a series of outcomes, and the underestimation of the upper values (central tendency effect). These methods may be useful in improving a priori predictions of spare parts for new weapons.

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