Adjustment for Central Tendency Effect in Predictions.
Expert InsightsPublished 1962
An examination of two phenomena connected with the prediction of a series of events. The first is the familiar statistical regression toward the mean occurring when one of two imperfectly correlated variables is predicted from the other. The second is the frequently observed phenomenon of overestimation of the lower values in a series of outcomes, and the underestimation of the upper values (central tendency effect). These methods may be useful in improving a priori predictions of spare parts for new weapons.
Document Details
- Copyright: RAND Corporation
- Availability: Web Only
- Year: 1962
- Pages: 12
- Document Number: P-2618
Citation
RAND Style Manual
Chicago Manual of Style
This publication is part of the RAND paper series. The paper series was a product of RAND from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.
RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.