The Systematic Use of Expert Judgment in Operations Research

by Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg

Download

Download Free Electronic Document

FormatFile SizeNotes
PDF file 0.5 MB

Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience.

Purchase

Purchase Print Copy

 FormatList Price Price
Add to Cart Paperback8 pages $20.00 $16.00 20% Web Discount

A consideration of operations research as a science, though an inexact one. The operations analyst, as opposed to the pure scientist, emphasizes control rather than understanding. Judgment in constructing and applying operations-analytical models should be as expert and its application as systematic as possible. Improved methods of identifying and measuring expertness and of employing experts efficiently are needed. In particular, the use of groups of experts by consensus techniques, by the Delphi technique, and by simulation procedures and operational gaming should be further refined.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation paper series. The paper was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.

Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.