Some Trends in Analysis
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Four trends can be seen in the development of cost-effectiveness analysis. (1) Close man-computer interaction--through on-line, time-shared systems with individual consoles, natural language, graphic input and output, and disc-stored submodels--enables the user to modify his program instantly, even during execution. Hence, it facilitates the numerous parametric investigations and sensitivity analyses necessary in ranking alternatives. (2) The theory of [n]-person games accommodates the models with many insignificant players so common in cost-effectiveness analyses. Judgment and intuition guide both quantitative and nonquantitative aspects of an analysis, especially those with high social and political content. (3) Expertise can be systematically exploited by Delphi, an iterative procedure for eliciting and refining group opinions through a series of questionnaires with anonymous response. (4) Analysts are now facilitating implementation of their studies by investigating the potential effectiveness, political feasibility, the internal organizational acceptability of their recommendations, and the relationships between individual and organizational needs and objectives.
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