Some Comments on Systems Analysis.

by Gene Fisher

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An assessment of the current state of systems analysis and its possibilities for the future in the context of national security. Systems analysis is defined as a process to help sharpen the judgment of decisionmakers by a more precise statement of problems, by identification or invention of alternatives, by measurement of costs and benefits, by explicit treatment of the uncertainties involved, and by a serious attempt to estimate the effects of policy alternatives and parameter variability. The key problem for future work is to try to bring together results obtained by different techniques; for instance, improving the time-consuming, expensive, and unreliable process of gaming by adding online computing for the players. A major need is for a better means of representing the economic (opportunity) costs of decisions. 17 pp.

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