Some Comments on the Problem of Self-Affecting Predictions.

R. H. Rochberg

Expert InsightsPublished 1967

An analysis of the possible interaction between predictions and the events about which the predictions are made. The following questions are considered: (1) Is the interaction of prediction and event predictable? (2) Can the interaction of prediction and event be controlled? (3) How and to what extent should people making predictions try to take into account the possible effects of their predictions? (4) Is the entire phenomenon of self-affecting predictions of any practical use? A flowchart is proposed as a possible conceptual framework for the problem, and other analytical methods are suggested for modeling types of prediction-event interaction. 31 pp. Ref.

Document Details

  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Web Only
  • Year: 1967
  • Pages: 31
  • Document Number: P-3735

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Rochberg, R. H., Some Comments on the Problem of Self-Affecting Predictions. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1967. https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P3735.html.
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