Demographic Conditions of Economic Development in Latin America.

An analysis of the demographic causes and consequences of the population explosion in Latin America. About half of the current population is under 15 years old, due to a high level of fertility and a decline in infant and child mortality. The resulting enlarged labor force cannot be absorbed by agriculture, and high rates of internal migration and urbanization are not solutions but responses to the employment problems. There is strong circumstantial evidence that rapid growth of population retards the advance of personal welfare and increases the inequality in its personal distribution compared with a regime of lower fertility and slower population growth. Government policies can strengthen the incentives toward lower fertility rates by (1) improving employment opportunities for women, thereby placing constraints on child rearing and lowering birth rates; (2) fostering universal school attendance, which increases child costs and decreases economic gain from employment of children; and (3) allocating more health and welfare program resources to eliminate infant and child mortality, since historical evidence suggests that for birth rates to decline, child survival must improve. 40 pp. Ref.