Computer Software : The Evolution within the Revolution.

George W. Armerding

Expert InsightsPublished 1968

As the cost of developing and maintaining computer software approaches (perhaps, exceeds) the cost of hardware, programs are being recognized as salable and patentable items in their own right. The cooperative spirit of the pioneers is giving way to competition. Some management information systems are being sold by software houses in competition with those offered free by computer manufacturers. The trend will continue, and reckless competition is sure to come: every programmer is a potential software entrepreneur. The evolution now taking place among those who write computer programs gives rise to the question of whether or not professional programmers will disappear. People who "call" themselves programmers may begin to diminish, but the total of "real" programmers and others who perform functions that could be categorized as programming will increase. Special-purpose time-sharing systems are evolving into general-purpose ones. Increased performance, at lower cost per answer, more than compensates for the overhead cost of software. However, the design loop between hardware and software is not solidly closed; feedback from programmers is inadequate. 14 pp.

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Armerding, George W., Computer Software : The Evolution within the Revolution. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1968. https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P3894.html.
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