A review of trends in computing. By 1975, due primarily to large-scale integrated circuitry, we may expect computers 200 times faster, 1000 times smaller, and 500 times cheaper. Total U.S. computer power will increase by a factor of 1000. However, the speed-versus-storage and efficiency-versus-versatility tradeoffs will continue. Computer systems are built and used with very little feedback, so that there is very little systematic building upon experience. When a study is made of just how engineers are using computers, results may be unexpected. One company found its engineers using old designs rather than new because programs were available to analyze them. System engineering techniques are seldom applied to the production of computer software. Such an analysis of RAND's Graphic ROCKET development resulted in POGO, a program that cut graphics control page development time from days to hours. To design computer systems properly, it is necessary to learn more about how men perceive, how they think, and how they create. (Prepared for presentation at the 1968 Joint Engineering Management Conference in Philadelphia.) 13 pp. Ref.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation Paper series. The paper was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.
Our mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/principles.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.