The Decline of Communism in Czechoslovakia.

Analysis of the origins and implications of the recent Soviet occupation of Czechoslovakia. Economic recession in the early 1960s in Czechoslovakia had serious economic and political effects. Among them were (1) economic evolution toward a market socialism with counterorthodox political implications; (2) reappraisal of national security interests favoring renegotiation of the USSR alliance to allow commercial cooperation with West Germany; (3) demands for increasing liberalization of institutions by a renascent intelligentsia; and (4) resurgence of Slovak nationalism, culminating in plans to federalize the state. The USSR was most alarmed about commercial rapprochement with Bonn, the existence of a free press, and prospects of erosion of the Party. Despite the Soviets' obvious position of strength in current negotiations, Czechoslovakia has bargaining assets. A [modus vivendi] is forecast in which Czechoslovakia will have to tolerate the presence of Soviet troops, censorship of public media, and denial of commercial dealings with Bonn. Probable Soviet concessions will allow freedom from terrorist control; retention of liberal gains in the academic realm; adoption of a federal constitution; and pursuit of economic reforms with Soviet subsidy. 36 pp.