A Note on Handling Uncertainty in Force-Structure Studies.

by Donald E. Emerson

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The description of preliminary work on a model designed to estimate the U.S. assured destruction capability for specified U.S. and Soviet Union postures. There is no optimization of force mix or balancing of defenses internal to the model. The model is deterministic: Input factors are selected from specified distributions and then all phases of the two-strike campaign are approximated by means of expected-value submodels. The "future best estimate" for each planning factor is determined by a sample drawn from the distribution of current uncertainty. The approach can provide useful insights for the decisionmaker. Based on specified degrees of uncertainty in the several inputs, it is possible to determine the appropriate force mix (or size) to achieve a desired level of confidence at least cost. 9 pp.

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