The Prediction of Political Feasibility

Yehezkel Dror

Expert InsightsPublished 1969

A discussion of methods for the systematic exploration of political feasibility concerning policy-oriented predictions. Political feasibility is defined in three interdependent ways: (1) an actor's ability to influence and implement policies, (2) a probability distribution in respect to each policy-alternative, and (3) a range of "time-sensitive" policy alternatives. Among the variables that shape political feasibility are the capacities and intentions of the main actors; public opinion and other related pressures; actor-interaction; and rules of the field, subject to change by variables external to the analysis. From these preliminaries, three schemes are developed that utilize the Delphi method to provide the policymaker with tools for dealing with time spans, probabilities, and various combinations of conditions and assumptions that might arise in predicting political feasibility.

Document Details

Citation

Chicago Manual of Style

Dror, Yehezkel, The Prediction of Political Feasibility. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1969. https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P4044.html.
BibTeX RIS

This publication is part of the RAND paper series. The paper series was a product of RAND from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.