A Model of Long Delays at Busy Airports.

by Alan Carlin, Rolla Edward Park

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A simple, deterministic queuing model of airport congestion delay costs, and a JOSS program employing it to evaluate airport policy changes. (The AIL and other airport capacity studies have usually used a steady-state queuing model that is misleading or inapplicable when arrival rates become close to or greater than service rates.) This new model takes account of the pattern of arrivals/departures, delay patterns, weather (good/bad), and season (summer/winter). Analysis of about 32,000 flights at Kennedy International shows a total delay cost during 1967-1968 of $25 million; average traffic peaked at 4:00 to 6:00 p.m. and peak average delays occurred two hours later. Results are given for applying the model to evaluate lessened delay from reducing traffic by various means. 35 pp. Ref.

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