Potential Causes and Consequences of Space-Flight Emergencies

Stephen H. Dole

Expert InsightsPublished 1969

A preliminary analysis of the range of survival times — the allowable delays before rescue of astronauts in life-threatening emergencies. Equipment failure is the likeliest cause. Personnel breakdown and environmental hazards, such as meteoroid impact and solar flares, should be rare. The basic threats that might affect entire crews are: deprivation of oxygen, water, or food; physiological stress (tumbling, heat); chemical and radiation injury. Physical injury is more likely to occur to individuals, who could usually be aided by fellow crewmen. Survival times would be distributed probabilistically according to some negative exponential function. Hazards can be divided into those requiring only on-board supplies and self-help, those requiring external unmanned assistance, and those requiring human aid.

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Dole, Stephen H., Potential Causes and Consequences of Space-Flight Emergencies. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1969. https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P4141.html.
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