Alternative Domestic Politics Futures (ADPF) : Research Needs and Research Design.

by Yehezkel Dror

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Discusses the need and the way to study the neglected alternative domestic politics futures. Their sensitivity to ideologies and values, the disdain of some researchers for politics, and the scarcity of methods suitable for identifying, considering, elaborating, and evaluating ADPF have led to their neglect despite their importance in constraining and directing all aspects of society. A basic design for the study of ADPF includes (1) a facet analysis of domestic politics identifying its main dimensions and their possible permutations; and (2) cross-impact analyses of domestic politics and social institutions, and an estimate of the probability of ADPF, based on integration of autonomous ADPF predictions and the predictions of various cross-impacts on ADPF. This design suffers from the dangers involved in breaking down an overall gestalt into components and from the inability of cross-impact analyses to do justice to real-life complexities of interdependence and interrelations. 17 pp.

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