Standard Error of Forecast in Multiple Regression
Proof of a Useful Result
ResearchPublished 1970
Proof of a Useful Result
ResearchPublished 1970
Proof that the standard error of forecasting the dependent variable and the expected value of the dependent variable in a multiple regression reduce to very simple formulas when evaluated at the sample means of the independent variables. These simple formulas involve only knowledge of sample size and the standard error of estimate, the latter of which is typically printed out in computer regression routines. By using these results, one avoids the necessity of calculating the more complicated general formulas for the standard error, in those cases for which evaluation at the mean will suffice. Although the results are not surprising, the author has been unable to find a published proof.
This publication is part of the RAND paper series. The paper series was a product of RAND from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.
RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.