Have the World Series Been Fixed?
ResearchPublished 1970
Illustrates the kind of statistical techniques that could be employed by an agency monitoring sporting events for evidence of tampering with their outcomes. The specific question addressed is: Have the baseball World Series been artificially lengthened, especially during the 1940-1969 period? Most parties concerned — players, owners, advertisers, mass media, gamblers, and fans — would benefit from a longer series. Theoretically, the maximum probability of a series lasting 7 games is less than 0.31, but anyone betting against a 7-game series each year would have lost 15 times since 1940. There is no evidence that the distribution of series lengths is different from decade to decade. Using one example Bayesian probability model, the 1967 and 1968 series would merit investigation, having gone slightly above the theoretical upper bound on series length.
Document Details
- Copyright: RAND Corporation
- Availability: Available
- Year: 1970
- Print Format: Paperback
- Paperback Pages: 22
- Paperback Price: $20.00
- Document Number: P-4447
Citation
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Helmbold, Robert L., Have the World Series Been Fixed? RAND Corporation, P-4447, 1970. As of September 12, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P4447.html
Helmbold, Robert L., Have the World Series Been Fixed? Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1970. https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P4447.html. Also available in print form.
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