The Changing Balance of Births and Deaths: A Comment.

T. P. Schultz

Expert InsightsPublished 1971

Commenting on Kinsley Davis' paper, the author discusses the problem of rapid population growth in the low-income countries. Research strategy should focus on the family or small community to trace environmental constraints and opportunities influencing desired and achieved fertility, and possibly to isolate the additional contribution family planning programs make to the decline of fertility. In disagreement with Davis, the author finds that fertility and child mortality rates are related. Parents frame their family goals on numbers of surviving children. Once these goals have been reached, parents exercise birth control. In developing countries, improvements in child nutrition and local health facilities might reduce infant and child mortality, and therefore birth rates, within a decade. Modification of education, employment, and welfare policies might further change parental demands toward smaller surviving family size goals. 11 pp. Ref.

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Schultz, T. P., The Changing Balance of Births and Deaths: A Comment. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1971. https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P4575.html.
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