Predicting Progress, Recognizing Breakthroughs, and Evaluating Performance in the Treatment of Leukemia.

Thomas L. Lincoln, R. E. Wells

Expert InsightsPublished 1972

Graphical tools are valuable for the prediction of future achievements and in the early recognition of breakthroughs in leukemia research and for the comparative evaluation of results. Predictions of future ALL (acute lymphocytic leukemia) trends indicate that the median life expectancy of patients is increasing 14 percent per year and that the hazard rate is decreasing 9 percent. If the present trend persists, the disease will not be controlled until the end of the century. Chemotherapy has been the only breakthrough in the last 21 years. New drugs, multiple drugs, and sophisticated maintenance regimens have steadily improved the control of the disease but have not yet produced a sudden advance. Of the two methods examined for evaluating performance, one based on median survival and the other on hazard rate, the second is recommended because it provides more rapid feedback. 27 pp. Ref.

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Lincoln, Thomas L. and R. E. Wells, Predicting Progress, Recognizing Breakthroughs, and Evaluating Performance in the Treatment of Leukemia. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1972. https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P4766.html.
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