Explores prospects for major changes in Soviet policy on the Warsaw Pact. The Pact enables the Soviets to impose their will on Eastern Europe in the name of "proletarian internationalism" and "fraternal solidarity." It also provides bases for 25 to 30 Soviet divisions, tactical air, and missiles, plus joint force exercises and equipment standardization. Motives that may account for the present detente phase of Soviet policy include (1) desire for more Western credits, technology, and management know-how; (2) to obtain "legal" recognition of the territorial and political division of Europe and Soviet supremacy in East Europe; (3) to loosen U.S. ties with NATO; (4) to influence West German policy; (5) to slow down Western European integration into an effective third force; and (6) to free military resources to threaten China. It remains to be seen how the Soviet leaders evaluate their competitive position with and without the Warsaw Pact alliance. (For presentation at an Inter-University Research Colloquium at the Institute for Sino-Soviet Studies, George Washington University.) 19 pp. Ref.