The Policy Effects Analysis Method
A System Dynamics Simulation Study of the Defense Fuel Supply System
ResearchPublished 1973
A System Dynamics Simulation Study of the Defense Fuel Supply System
ResearchPublished 1973
Presents the PEA method of evaluating the effects of policies and events that influence energy usage, supply, and management, and applies it to the military's aviation fuel (Avfuel) supply system. The method is designed for temporary changes that would not cause a major redesign of the military's Avfuel management system. The basic approach is to analyze the possible effects of a given policy or event on fuel availability, the desired rate of consumption, delivery delays, and ordering requirements; express them quantitatively; and use them as inputs to drive a computer simulation. The results of example simulation experiments are presented. The method might be extended to any economic good consumed by the military. (Presented at ORSA Conference, San Diego, November 1973.) 16 pp. Ref.
This publication is part of the RAND paper series. The paper series was a product of RAND from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.
RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.