Presents the PEA method of evaluating the effects of policies and events that influence energy usage, supply, and management, and applies it to the military's aviation fuel (Avfuel) supply system. The method is designed for temporary changes that would not cause a major redesign of the military's Avfuel management system. The basic approach is to analyze the possible effects of a given policy or event on fuel availability, the desired rate of consumption, delivery delays, and ordering requirements; express them quantitatively; and use them as inputs to drive a computer simulation. The results of example simulation experiments are presented. The method might be extended to any economic good consumed by the military. (Presented at ORSA Conference, San Diego, November 1973.) 16 pp. Ref.