Admissible Scoring Systems for Continuous Distributions

Thomas A. Brown

Expert InsightsPublished 1974

The use of admissible scoring systems for discrete probabilistic forecasts is familiar to weather forecasters and has often been proposed as a new technique in intelligence and educational testing. However, many forecasting tasks involve predicting a number (from a very large set of possibilities) rather than choosing one of a small, discrete set of contingencies. This paper presents three alternative techniques for generating admissible scoring systems which may be applied to such "continuous" (as opposed to "discrete") forecasting tasks.

Document Details

  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Web Only
  • Year: 1974
  • Pages: 24
  • Document Number: P-5235

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Brown, Thomas A., Admissible Scoring Systems for Continuous Distributions. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1974. https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P5235.html.
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