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Few foreseeable developments in Europe could affect the course of detente as seriously as a radical change in Yugoslav foreign policy or severe internal strife in that country. Only the Communist Party can keep Yugoslavia together in the face of tugging and hauling among six major and a host of minor national and ethnic groups too intermingled to be separated. Tito is the last Yugoslav leader not particularly identified with one national group. This need sets limits to both the liberalization and the Soviet-style command relationship possible for the party. The Western press as a whole has not been very perceptive about this. Soviet-Yugoslav cooperation in behalf of the Arab cause derived from Yugoslavia's special relationship with Egypt and other Arab countries, not with Moscow. Johnson's prognosis is that Yugoslavia will at worst muddle through--and may well do much better than that. (May 1974 seminar paper, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Georgetown University.) 6 pp.

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