Recent Research Insights into Local Migration Flows.

by Peter A. Morrison, Daniel A. Relles

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Results of research to develop an application-oriented model for estimating and forecasting local migration rates, based on a unique national body of longitudinal data on individual workers, the Social Security Continuous Work History Sample. Regression analysis results indicate that (1) The prevailing rate of in-migration to a given locality is modulated by year-to-year changes in area employment. (2) Out-migration is differently determined, varying according to the proportion of residents who are chronic movers; year-to-year employment change has no systematic effect on the out-migration rate for an area. A model for forecasting in-migration from employment is presented, which fits the data slightly better than simple trend extrapolation. 55 pp. (Presented at Conference on the Distribution of Population, sponsored by National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, January 1975.)

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