Release of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from controlled containment whether by accident, sabotage, or act of war, presents a number of unique safety hazards. There are at least four main research areas that must be addressed in developing estimates of the risk to population and property from importing large quantities of LNG. Here we examine the available research approaches directed toward one of these, the assessment of the possible release scenarios and in particular their associated probabilities. Criticism on certain of the assumptions and results made by some of the previous work in this area is discussed and because much of the work available to date is insufficient and incomplete in assessing the risks, the character and need for more research is discussed.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation Paper series. The paper was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.