Statistical Considerations in the Evaluation of the Climatic Experiments with General Circulation Models

by J. A. Laurmann, W. Lawrence Gates


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Develops a rationale for planning the extent of climate simulation trials needed to establish the significance of any proposed climatic change experiment. The topic is treated from an elementary statistical viewpoint and the report is in part written to serve as an introduction to statistical questions that are important for climate modeling. Conclusions concerning the planning of climatic change experiments include a quantitative prescription for determining the extent of model calculations required to establish the presence of a climatic change between two numerical experiments at any chosen confidence level.

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