Possible Effects of Nuclear Initiative on Supply and Use of Electricity in California.

by Deane N. Morris

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Testimony presented at hearings on the California Nuclear Safeguards Initiative discussing possible effects of the passage of the initiative. Using projections of electricity use developed at RAND, the author suggests that generating capacity could be sufficient to meet California requirements through the end of the century without nuclear capacity, provided that there were development of alternate sources (solar, geothermal) and aggressive and effective state actions in energy conservation. If the development of alternate sources of electricity is low, then even with low use and solar substitution there would be a shortfall in the last decade of the century. State planning to reduce uncertainties should include: incentives for development of geothermal and solar energy and methane from organic materials, policy actions toward energy conservation, and assisting utilities in redesigning their rate structure to reduce peak loads.

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