Demographic and economic influences on the growth and decline of higher education

Stephen J. Carroll

Expert InsightsPublished 1976

Higher education enjoyed a remarkable era of growth peaking in the mid-1960s and ending early in the 1970s. This paper presents a description of the national demographic and economic context of higher education, and offers interpretations of what it portends for community colleges. First, owing to major swings in fertility following World War II, demographic pressure will dissipate at the traditional college-going age range, but continue at the somewhat older ages, when people are commonly drawn back to higher education, especially to community colleges. Second, since the present oversupply of college-educated persons is likely to persist, it is likely that the gap between the expected lifetime earnings of college and high school graduates will continue to narrow. Finally, it is reasonable to anticipate continued low rates of college enrollment compared with the late 1960s and, possibly, further decline in these rates.

Document Details

  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Web Only
  • Year: 1976
  • Pages: 16
  • Document Number: P-5569

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Carroll, Stephen J., Demographic and economic influences on the growth and decline of higher education. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1976. https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P5569.html.
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