Avionics Data for Cost Estimating

Bruce Armstrong

Expert InsightsPublished 1977

Describes a recent RAND effort to create an avionics database for tactical aircraft. The description includes examples from the database and discusses some of the classical avionics cost analysis problems encountered. Reliable prediction of avionics costs has been impeded by rapid technological change, small production runs, and poor historical cost information. Some results of this study: (1) The creation of a database of nearly 200 avionics systems including both cost and technical information. (2) Accurate cost estimating models cannot be developed from this database because of small sample sizes of "homogeneous" categories. (3) The use of cost-per-pound estimators is unreliable because of the extreme variability of the statistic even within equipment categories. (4) The database is most useful for cost analysis by analogy, but statistical analysis may be feasible with expansion of the aircraft sample to include ASW, Cargo-Tanker, Reconnaissance, Electronics, and Trainer aircrafts.

Document Details

  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Web Only
  • Year: 1977
  • Pages: 18
  • Document Number: P-5745-1

Citation

Chicago Manual of Style

Armstrong, Bruce, Avionics Data for Cost Estimating. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1977. https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P5745-1.html.
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