Cover: Defense budget interactions revisited

Defense budget interactions revisited

Published 1977

by Robert Shishko

Purchase Print Copy

 Format Price
Add to Cart Paperback21 pages $20.00

The Despres-Dhrymes (D-D) model of defense budget interactions among the United States, the Soviet Union, and the People's Republic of China is reexamined in light of the new CIA estimates of Soviet defense light of the new CIA estimates of Soviet defense spending and the availability of a statistical technique that accounts for the simultaneity in the model's equations. Using a common database, the D-D model is reestimated using the single-equation technique, and the results are compared with the simultaneous equation technique. Neither technique yields estimates that can aid in the selection of U.S. strategies for the long-term competition. As currently formulated, the adjustment process that underlies the D-D model may not be a very good description of the world. It therefore seems worthwhile to explore interactive models that deal with specific arenas of the military competition and that allow for asymmetric lags and systematic misperceptions (for example, the elusive missile and bomber gaps) by one side or another.

This report is part of the RAND paper series. The paper was a product of RAND from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.