Presents the methodologies developed for performing stochastic simulations of oil spill trajectories using a three-dimensional numerical model, a stochastic weather model, and models associated with the behavior of the spreading oil, all for the purpose of assessing risks and environmental impacts. In predicting the behavior of the spilled oil, the method of response functions derived from the 3-D model is used in calculating the wind drift and inertial dynamics. The 3-D model is also used to derive the tidal residual circulation as well as to provide the turbulent energy densities for assessing vertical shear coupling. For the study areas in the eastern Bering Sea, the paper gives 60 computed surface oil trajectories under a 30-day stochastic weather scenario from 30 hypothetical spill locations representing platforms, pipelines, and transportation routes.
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