Flying in the face of uncertainty: alternative plans and postures for interdiction in Southwest Asia

by Robert A. Levine

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This paper attempts to explain and demonstrate a new methodological approach to General Purpose Force employment analysis, and the analysis of alternative strategies and doctrine for theater-level war in particular. It uses two sets of analytic tools, military history and theater-level simulation modeling. The author examines a current policy issue, the evaluation of alternative U.S. interdiction strategies to counter a hypothetical Soviet invasion of Iran given the many uncertainties inherent in the problem, in order to assess (1) the benefits to U.S. strategy of Iranian military resistance to a Soviet invasion and of Iranian cooperation with the United States; (2) ways to make the best use of such Iranian cooperation; and (3) possible variation on U.S. airpower and interdiction strategy in the first few weeks of a war in order to exploit the new alliance with Iran.

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