Assessing Options for Anti-Satellite Arms Control

The Analytic Hierarcy Process

by Scott Pace

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The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) has identified seven anti-satellite policy options. This paper evaluates the desirability of each option from the viewpoint of U.S. interests; identifies risk areas; and demonstrates the applicability of a structured quantitative evaluation technique, the Analytic Hierarchy Process, to a current policy issue. The result is a quantitative, auditable ranking of the OTA options by persons at RAND familiar with anti-satellite/ballistic missile defense issues.

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