The evolving Warsaw Pact threat: political and military dimensions

by A. Ross Johnson

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This paper was originally presented at a symposium on "Defending Europe in the Late 1980s: Political and Military Options," presented by the University of Southern California, School of International Relations, April 12-13, 1985. The author discusses some fundamentals of Soviet policy affecting Europe, reviews some aspects of East-West relations since the 1970s, and suggests that in the future, Soviet policies toward Europe are likely to continue to occupy a middle range. This projection means more differentiated detente: On one hand, the Soviets will pursue arms control talks with the United States, and on the other, Soviet policy will involve wooing Western Europe, and seeking to "drive wedges" between Western Europe and the United States. Specifically, the author foresees a limit to the Soviet anti-German propaganda campaign; more Soviet business offers to European, as opposed to U.S. industry; and Soviet campaigns against the Strategic Defense Initiative and "emerging technologies."

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Paper series. The paper was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.

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