Pitfalls in the Use of Imperfect Information

William Dean

Expert InsightsPublished 1988

Using game theory and decision theory, this paper considers the impact of underconfidence or overconfidence in battle intelligence and shows how the outcome of faulty decisions compares with that of good decisions. The author concludes that if a commander is willing to take risks, he can exploit imperfect information in a range of situations. However, if he acts on best estimates, he can incur high risks through self-deception.

Topics

Document Details

Citation

Chicago Manual of Style

Dean, William, Pitfalls in the Use of Imperfect Information. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1988. https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P7430.html.
BibTeX RIS

This publication is part of the RAND paper series. The paper series was a product of RAND from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.