A metaphor for thinking about changes in Army doctrine

by James A. Dewar, Morlie Levin

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This paper projects what the world might be like in the year 2018 and the implications for Army doctrine using the metaphor of a molecule affected by lights. A small Delphi exercise in which participants posed yes/no questions about this future world helped identify possible environments that would require a different doctrine. Nine categories were chosen as the most relevant determinants of the future as it would affect Army doctrine. The authors conclude that the Army might not have much control over the events that could require doctrinal change.

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