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This paper examines the Tomahawk cruise missile program to evaluate the proposition that successful management of the research, development, and acquisition of a major weapon system depends partly on using evolutionary rather than revolutionary breakthroughs and on incremental rather than dramatic performance improvements of an existing technology base. The author reviews the technological risks associated with the major subsystems of the Tomahawk and their integration; examines the program's record for evidence of technological risk as manifested in cost growth, schedule slippage, and performance shortfalls; and develops a model for assessing quantitatively the level of technological risk in the Tomahawk program. The analysis suggests that a low to moderate — and therefore manageable — level of technological risk characterized the program and that the absence of substantial technological risk contributed to its overall success.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation Paper series. The paper was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.
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