Preliminary thoughts concerning potential U.S. Army threats/roles

by Richard A. Greene, Kenneth A. Solomon, Jeffrey T. Miles

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By defining a broad spectrum of potential threats facing the Army of the future, this paper provides a base against which the potential advantages of alternative, advanced technologies applied to possible future U.S. Army roles can be examined. Focusing first upon threat locations, it discusses military force levels (and other characteristics) present in several areas of the world. The authors also discuss conflict size and organize potential threats in terms of their expected likelihood of occurrence and expected number of casualties, enabling them to define seven generic, potential threats: global nuclear war, global nonnuclear war, in-country wars, regional conflicts, insurgencies, reactions to terrorism, and civil action.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Paper series. The paper was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.

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