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This paper is the text of a speech given at a luncheon co-sponsored by Town Hall of California and the Los Angeles Council of Engineers and Scientists, in Los Angeles, on February 19, 1991. The author describes the possible future geopolitical environment, the outlook for defense spending, and their implications for the defense industry. He identifies some characteristics of the post-Cold War era: (1) an increase in the likelihood of non-superpower crises; (2) more far-reaching destructive effects of disputes that were once limited in scope, as modern weapons are used; (3) an increased need for collective action--whether under the aegis of international organizations, multinational alliances, or ad hoc affiliations--to meet international problems; (4) the need for the United States to take a leading role in the creation of a new world security order; and (5) cooperation with more than the United States' traditional international partners. Finally, deliberations about longer-term security requirements should be dominated by two critical considerations: the formulation of a new national security strategy, and a strengthening of the industrial capability that supports our global military reach and influence.

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