Onzekerheidsanalyse van de Ruimtevraag in de Haven van Rotterdam [Risk Analysis of the Demand for Space in the Port of Rotterdam]

by Adnan Rahman, Kerry M. Malone, Barbara van de Kerke, Janneke Vader

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The future growth of the Port of Rotterdam could lead to significant space demands and possible space shortages. To gain insight into the growth of the demand for space the Port Authorities (GHB) developed several long scenarios of space demands which are further quantified in several modules. RAND Europe was asked to critically analyze the future models developed by the GHB. The first task was the development of a framework for uncertainty analyses, in which the most pressing uncertainties regarding the demand for space are identified. Furthermore, a critical analysis of the long term scenarios was conducted, after which the team developed and executed an uncertainty analysis of the modules. The final results of the study showed that the scenarios developed by the GHB were based on a very professional methodology, based on GHBs internal expertise and data. However the structure of the scenarios required further attention as the scenarios appeared to have omitted important port-specific sectors which would largely influence future space demands.

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